It’s time for me to pick games.
After a slow start, the game race picked up as I went 8-6 against the spread and 12-2 straight up last week. This brings my ATS record to 46-43-3 and my direct record to 51-41. I will take it.
This week features several high-profile games, including a rematch Super Bowl The Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers last February. This time, the game is in San Francisco and not at a neutral site, giving the 49ers a huge edge. But is choosing them enough?
Read on to find out who I’m picking and all my other sports betting picks. It’s the third Sunday in October, which means we should continue to get better at this season — at least that’s how it felt in Week 6. Let’s keep the momentum going.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Thursday, 8:15 pm and (main video)
This is Sean Payton’s return to face his former team. But unlike those Saints teams, this Denver team is limited on offense. They play good defense, but will be without star corner Patrick Sartain. That will be at quarterback for the Saints after Spencer Radler made his first start last week. I think he will play solid football here and the Saints will beat their former coach.
Selection: Saints 23, Broncos 16
Bonus: Matt Severance, who is on a 21-6 roll in Broncos games, has posted the best bets for Week 7 on “Thursday Night Football.” Severance is leaning toward totals, but who is he covering? Find out Here at SportsLine.
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL network, Fubo)
This is the dog game of the week. Both teams have major issues, but at least the Patriots have an excuse to start a new quarterback in Drake May. With Jacksonville’s last-ranked passing defense, he could hit them with some big plays. But Jacksonville is a better team and Trevor Lawrence will play a little better.
Selection: Jaguars 29, Patriots 21
Sunday, 1 pm ET (fox, Fubo try it for free)
It’s been a long road for Seattle. Defense struggles. That’s not a good thing against a good Atlanta offense. Look for a lot of points here as both quarterbacks play well. But the best player for the Falcons is Kirk Cousins.
Selection: Falcons 34, Seahawks 30
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bills are coming off a week of beating the Jets. The Titans are coming off a tough loss at home to the Colts. Their offense has been lifeless for most of the season, while the Bills can put up points. But I think Tennessee’s defense will keep the Titans in this one. Closer than expected.
Selection: Bills 23, Titans 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Ohio battle is not what we thought it would be when the season started. The Browns were awful, while the Bengals struggled on defense. Something has to give here. Joe Burrow is playing well, and I say the Bengals defense will continue to do what other defenses have done for the Browns this season, making Deshaun Watson struggle. Bengal won.
Selection: Bengals 21, Browns 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a game that features two of the best young passers in the league in CJ Stroud and Jordan Love. Both can put up big numbers in the passing game. The Texans play a series of road games, which is tough. The Packers would get the better of Love winning a shootout with Stroud.
Selection: Packers 34, Texans 30
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 pm ET (fox, Fubo try it for free)
While the Colts were coming off a road win over the Titans, the Dolphins came out of the bag they desperately needed. Anthony Richardson will return for the Colts, while Tyler Huntley will start for the Dolphins. Both of these teams have had defensive issues stopping the run, so look for the Colts with a better run game to find a way.
Selection: Colts 21, Dolphins 17
Sunday, 1 pm ET (fox, Fubo try it for free)
The Vikings are coming off the bench and the Lions are coming off the road as a blowout for the Cowboys in the first place in the division. The Lions lost Aidan Hutchinson to a broken leg, which will hurt their pass rush in a big way. Look for Sam Darnold to throw to Austin Jefferson and flash it. The Lions will also get Jared Goff playing well. It will be fun to watch, but the Vikings will win it.
Selection: Vikings 31, Lions 26
Sunday, 1 pm ET (fox, Fubo try it for free)
The Eagles didn’t look good in beating the Browns last week, while the Giants fell short in a loss to the Bengals. The Giants defense is playing well, while the Eagles offense is not. The Giants will get receiver Malik Nabbers back in this one, which will be crucial in a big way. The Giants won it in an upset.
Selection: Giants 24, Eagles 20
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Rams are coming off a layoff that they need for injury reasons. The Raiders lost two straight and the change to Aidan O’Connell at quarterback improved the offense but didn’t win. How does the trade of Davante Adams affect this team? The Rams are the best team and Matt Stafford is the best quarterback. Rama took it.
Selection: Rams 27, Raiders 19
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a game with two defenses that have problems with two offenses that can score. So watch a shootout of sorts between Jaden Daniels and Andy Dalton. Ultimately, I bet Daniels will get the best of Washington as they bounce back from last week’s loss to the Ravens.
Selection: Commanders 35, Panthers 27
Kansas City Chiefs (-1) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo try it for free)
It’s a big game for both teams, a Super Bowl rematch. As the 49ers played last Thursday, the Chiefs are leaving on one side, and that rules out some. The 49ers are struggling on defense, which is never a good thing against Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs play defense well. And that continues as they win a tough road game.
Selection: Chiefs 27, 49ers 23
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Fubo try it for free)
The Jets made a move to get Davante Adams, who should help the offense if he plays. The Steelers once again have a quarterback problem as Russell Wilson looks to take first-team reps. Regardless of who plays, the running game and defense will be key to the Steelers in this game. But the Jets will once again play good run defense and Aaron Rodgers will do enough to win a tough road game.
Selection: Jets 23, Steelers 17
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Fubo try it for free)
This is a big game between two of the best teams in the league right now. Both offenses can roll up big points in a hurry. This could be one of those games where the last team with the ball wins. Being at home on Monday, I’ll go with Baker Mayfield to win the shootout.
Selection: Bucs 34, Ravens 31
Monday, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
After a win in Denver, the Chargers hit the road for the second week in a row. The Cardinals are at home for the first time in three weeks. Arizona doesn’t fall defensively, and it shows week in and week out — even when they play hard. I bet the Chargers will win behind their offense. Kyler Murray won’t continue as the Chargers defense continues to play well.
Selection: Chargers 27, Cardinals 14
